Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 8.140629 9.357258 10.669642 12.187585 13.891822 15.742998 17.902752
2026-01-11 6.287956 7.915216 9.809591 12.165761 15.004636 18.301038 22.403619
2026-01-18 5.265507 7.034794 9.198929 12.018332 15.569289 19.866068 25.428358
2026-01-25 4.549080 6.413089 8.796319 12.031128 16.266206 21.576671 28.686655
2026-02-01 4.036281 5.963898 8.525087 12.126140 16.998618 23.294450 31.964115
2026-02-08 3.558833 5.497035 8.166941 12.045871 17.456033 24.640845 34.790138
2026-02-15 3.154011 5.079754 7.823709 11.933319 17.827557 25.853612 37.456473
2026-02-22 2.864088 4.794849 7.632902 12.003110 18.431696 27.384637 40.597782
2026-03-01 2.681789 4.650869 7.628066 12.328528 19.400996 29.449510 44.552770
2026-03-08 2.397456 4.315078 7.301416 12.140404 19.593270 30.401741 46.952935
2026-03-15 2.076056 3.884203 6.787702 11.620022 19.242409 30.529620 48.142730
2026-03-22 1.967730 3.798977 6.813170 11.938371 20.177794 32.581705 52.226832
2026-03-29 1.841023 3.672960 6.766845 12.145404 20.962658 34.462392 56.168794
2026-04-05 1.672975 3.456138 6.550643 12.056921 21.269477 35.623867 59.068189
2026-04-12 1.518324 3.246534 6.326849 11.933763 21.502080 36.665136 61.805080
2026-04-19 1.399559 3.092039 6.185743 11.938364 21.938243 38.036155 65.099565
2026-04-26 1.305754 2.976033 6.103052 12.035599 22.528229 39.668793 68.859686
2026-05-03 1.196736 2.817708 5.928783 11.954856 22.804116 40.795060 71.840230
2026-05-10 1.094470 2.662065 5.746011 11.843398 23.014754 41.813879 74.673029
2026-05-17 1.023025 2.564015 5.665201 11.912606 23.542075 43.373720 78.441177
2026-05-24 0.985314 2.535644 5.718405 12.235917 24.536914 45.756418 83.654933
2026-05-31 0.897179 2.384720 5.513586 12.049020 24.591034 46.527390 86.178110
2026-06-07 0.785804 2.167083 5.153446 11.532091 24.003827 46.156156 86.733635